The Economy

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More Thoughts on the Economy Part XII

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 30th January 2009
David Blanchflower
In his most recent speech, David (THE ONLY MEMBER OF THE MPC THAT I RATE) explained that he thought the recession started in May 08 and yet there was no mention of a recession in the Bank of England inflation report in August (nice dig!).

More Thoughts on the Economy Part XI

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 29th January 2009
Robert Peston
One of the many commentators I read is Robert Peston. A lot of his articles are just noise but being the head of business reporting, the guy does get to grab some great interviews and insight. Yesterday he  interviewed George Soros and Nouirel Roubini. I recently looked at Roubini’s calculation [...]

More Thought on the Economy Part X

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 23rd January 2009
I read the Bank of England minutes yesterday and was shocked (though I don’t know why) to see once again a vote going 8 – 1 against David Blanchflower. You’ll remember he was the ONLY one of them who got it right before they started to cut rates.
From the MPC minutes:
32 [...]

More Thoughts on the Economy Part IX

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 15th January 2009
A Conversation With My Accountant
I was discussing my accounts the other day with my accountant and finalising some figures. He is in a company that is somewhere in the top 50 – 70 accountancy firms in the UK. I asked him what he thought of the economy.

More Thought on the Economy Part VIII

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 14th January 2009

What About The Savers?
The Fed and the Bank of England are punishing savers and the prudent people by manipulating interest rates to zero. So you can sit in cash and earn zero or you can be forced out on the risk spectrum just so you can keep up with inflation [...]

More Thoughts on the Economy Part VII

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 13th January 2009

Deflation – Recession/(Depression) Ends When?
“In troubled times, investors tend to withdraw from foreign markets to concentrate on the home scene they know best.”
The Fed & the BoE worry that in deflation, offsetting monetary policy is difficult since its target rate has to stop declining when it reaches zero. Of [...]

More Thoughts on the Economy Part VI

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 12th January 2009
It Hasn’t Even Got Going Yet!
I’m going to continue on this further today as I want to try and convey the pressure that is going on and is being placed on the economies around the world.
Spain’s Unemployment Figure Goes Past 3,100,000
This is an awful number, especially when you think that there [...]

More Thoughts on the Economy Part V

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 8th January 2009
This Downturn Hasn’t Really Got Going Yet
Before whatever spin Gordon Brown puts on it, try to remember this – this current downturn hasn’t really got going yet. The British people will not start to feel the effects properly until the Autumn. It will be clear to be seen, but it will [...]

More Thoughts on the Economy Part IV

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 7th January 2009
Further Regulation is Needed…Well at Least That’s What They Want Us to Think
Hector Sands, Chief Executive of the FSA, basically admitted that no amount of regulation would have stopped this crisis and I agree 100%. To think you can regulate in advance of changing sentiment is wholly ridiculous. The problem is [...]

More Thoughts on the Economy Part III

Monday, January 25th, 2010

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Originally Posted 6th January 2009
What Now for Monetary Policy?
The 8th Jan is nearly upon us and despite this it’s going to be good news for us property investors. Conventional monetary policy ease, through which central bank target interest rate cuts, at present is nearly useless at guiding the economy. Over the next few months we [...]

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