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More Signs Towards A May Election

By Andy Shaw | January 23, 2010

Originally Posted 13th July 2007

The chancellor is expected to set out a mini budget in October which is ahead of when they usually announce it in November. If they put in some sweeteners into that (such as another 1p off income tax) as well, then I would say that an election in May will be all but certain (but then I got it wrong with the rate rise prediction last week, well having said that I think I got it right saying they shouldn’t raise them and they got it wrong by raising them, but that’s just an opinion :-) ).

Anyway the point is as I said a few weeks ago I think that Gordon Brown wants his own mandate and is going to use his run in the polls and a few cleverly chosen changes to tradition to help him ride a wave through the next election. I’ve got to be honest, I thought he would hold onto the position for a couple of years before having to call an election and by doing so I thought the Conservatives would be more or less assured of victory, but this new play he’s making here is a much better chance for Labour to win. I think this is very clever play and I must admit if I was a betting man (and I’m not) I would bet on an election next May to coincide with the local government elections (70% chance of), and I would bet heavily on a labour win (if the election is called for then 85-90% chance of).

The only way this is not going to happen is if Gordon screws it up somewhere along the line in the PR war. My opinion is that this is much more likely than it was under Tony Blair as frankly Gordon is not as clever a politician and is much more likely to be caught out than Tony was. So if he gets caught out badly somewhere, or one of his ministers screws up publicly, then they might not go for an early election. But this guy is desperate to have his own mandate and that burning desire is going to push through and make it happen unless something big sends him the other way, as he knows just like I do, he has more of a chance to win early on. And he has more chance of forcing the Euro on us if it is done in 2009.

Best Wishes

Andy

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