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The Bank of England’s Latest Work of Fiction

By Andy Shaw | January 25, 2010

Originally Posted 12th November 2008

I’m talking about their inflation report.

Here are the notes I made while reading through – it should be noted at this stage that I got so fed up reading this report that I had to go away, have a drink and come back to it. This has been added in the articles section but it is not up to my usual standard as frankly this report is the worst I’ve ever read (as you’ll see) and I really don’t think it deserves any further commentary than my rough notes. Time will show how right I am, and guess what, I’ll be saying I told you so again within approx 6mths!

I was intending to write an article on it but as you will see from my notes my opinion is quite clear.

Notes on the BoE Nov 2008 Inflation Report

The graph on page 7 shows a V shape for GDP growth – Ha! Who are they trying to kid, other than themselves and everyone else… (that’s almost everybody!) This is just a joke and it really worries me as they have not yet seen the real problems with this situation.

They have not properly factored in the unemployment issue which I have been banging on about for ages which is the biggest problem we are facing, and even Capital Economics who I very rarely agree with are predicting 3.3million unemployed for 2010 – unfortunately these guys may be right for once.

Now given Gordon’s changing of the ‘who counts on the unemployment line’ statistic, this means that we will be right in the depth of an atrocious situation when the BoE think the GDP will be growing! I really do hope they are right and I am wrong as it would be a lot better if they were. Personally, I see unemployment getting far worse than I’ve seen it in my working life.

If you look at their ‘outlook for inflation’ fanchart on page 8 and then again on page 6 of the previous inflation report you’ll see it bears no resemblance.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/ir08nov.pdf

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/ir08aug.pdf

And if you really want a laugh, look at the report from 6 months ago and compare it to this one on page 7

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/inflationreport/ir08may.pdf

Basically these guys are just closing their eyes and throwing a dart in the wall!…Unbelievable!

They say at the start of their Money & Asset prices on page 9 that, ‘the period since the August report has seen the most serious disruption in the global banking system for almost a century.’ They say that they are still uncertain and pondering about what to do. They must immediately cut rates now to make this very painful recession less painful – this could easily, very easily become a depression thanks to their inaction. The patient is (but does not yet look) critical, and they need morphine right now…bloody hell! What do they need to happen to see what they must, must do!!!!!

This is gross incompetence on a scale of which I have not seen since Field Marshall Haig sent people out of the trenches to walk (not run) in front of the German machine guns. King is an idiot, there is no better way to describe it than that!

Their assumptions on oil are wrong as well, as they were when I predicted that oil would fall to $90 a barrel. I wanted to say $80 and I thought that was just too unbelievable…so lesson learnt, I should have trusted my instincts!

Their assumptions on unemployment are wrong. They are not just wrong they’d be laughable if it wasn’t so very serious.

That’s it, I’ve had enough I can’t stand reading such poor assumptions any more. Where the hell did this lot go to learn how to read graphs, these guys couldn’t predict a sunrise!

Right I’ve had a 20min break and a drink and now I think I can continue to read this utter garbage. But if I see another line saying, ‘That is a substantially weaker outlook than in the August Report’ (or similar) then I think I’ll throw up!! How can they seriously expect me or other educated people to take these truly incompetent commentators seriously?

They actually say that there are no signs that companies cashflows have worsened….un…real!!! What the f**k are they smoking!

I cannot believe what I am reading!!!!!

They are talking about the recovery taking hold, there isn’t going to be a recovery for a long time, get used to it guys!

End of Notes

In conclusion the Bank of England is relying on the incompetence of the media to let them get away with this travesty, and what really annoys me is that they will get away with it, at the countries expense!

As for us property landlords, nothing has really changed. All that has happened is that they have demonstrated once again their incompetence. It is only their incompetence which appears to be continually growing in these times. I would truly love to hear what David Blanchflower is saying behind closed doors about these intellectual lightweights. I bet this is doing his head in.

Don’t worry, this lot will yet again be brought down to earth with a big bump very soon and that will be an advantage to property landlords.

Don’t forget the golden rule – protect your cashflow at all costs, as cash is the only thing that matters.

Your totally pissed off with the Bank of England commentator,

Andy

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